Features » October 30, 2006

Dueling Democrats (cont’d)

In this fluid majority scenario, the progressive movement that exists outside the Democratic Party will be more important than it is now–but only if it serves as a progressive ideological force, and not simply a partisan one. If organizations like Moveon.org, unions and the consumer/environmental/civil rights advocacy groups are willing to prioritize their policy agendas over the Democratic Party insiders’ desire simply to win the next election through expediency, the progressive movement will become a kingmaker that lawmakers will rely on for their survival and success. Say goodbye to the era of Democratic lawmakers laughing off the grassroots like they did after the Lamont primary victory, and say hello to Democratic lawmakers pleading for grassroots support.

But, again, getting to that point will require the progressive movement to be comfortable not just going up against Republicans, but going up against lawmakers of both parties who cross its agenda. And if recent trends are any indication, the progressive movement is more than ready to assume this role. The Lieberman primary as well as other lower-tier primaries against Reps. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) and Al Wynn (D-Md.) indicate that progressives are not about to allow a Democratic majority to become complacent. On the contrary–Democratic legislators could be scrutinized even more closely by progressives.

If they lose

If circular firing squad competitions were an Olympic sport, Democrats’ typical post-election behavior would make them gold medal contenders. This is a party that has a lot of practice blaming each other–and in particular, a lot of experience watching the conservative, Big Money wing of the party dishonestly stereotype progressives as the reason for electoral defeat.

After the 2000 election, DLC chief Al From viciously attacked fellow DLCer Al Gore for supposedly being too populist (so much for loyalty). It didn’t matter that after Gore’s Democratic convention speech–arguably the most populist moment of his candidacy–he surged in the polls. What mattered to the Washington insiders was they could use his 2000 election loss as an excuse to publicly berate progressives.

If Democrats somehow manage to seize a mid-term loss from the jaws of victory in 2006, the DLC will undoubtedly again fabricate a storyline that blames it entirely on progressives. Somehow, we will be expected to believe that even though polls show a strong majority of Americans are angry with the Bush White House and want an exit strategy from Iraq, Democrats will have lost because they didn’t outhawk Bush by pushing the war even more aggressively than him. The DLC will issue a glossy report titled something like “Democrats Lost Because They Refused to Embrace the Politics of Genghis Khan” and then publish an accompanying book of essays by the DLC’s political “experts” entitled “Embracing Our Inner Genghis: A Blueprint for Democratic Victory in 2008.”

But this time around, progressives won’t have to take the distortions sitting down. With the party insisting on running its 2006 campaign without embracing the kind of bold economic, health care, anti-corruption and national security stances the public wants, a very compelling case can be made that the party lost the election because it projected weakness and timidity. And unlike in the past, the case will be made in a forceful manner by a strengthened base that has become increasingly influential, thanks to its growing power as a fundraising and grassroots political resource.

All of this will play out not just in the C-SPAN symposiums that the DLC feeds on, but also in Congress, most acutely in the House. There, Pelosi has steadfastly represented the progressive wing of the party, using her platform as minority leader to push her caucus away from K Street’s influence and towards a far more populist agenda. At every turn, however, she has been undermined by the likes of Hoyer. When she pushed Democrats to take a serious position on the Iraq War, Hoyer berated her efforts to the Washington Post. When she worked to distance the caucus from corporate lobbyists, Hoyer pitched himself in news stories as the Democrats’ chief point of contact for the lobbying community. When she tried to stop the credit card industry-written bankruptcy bill, Hoyer refused to help and instead voted for the abomination. The list goes on.

Hoyer’s behavior has been simultaneously ideological and tactical. The antithesis of a conviction politician, he is the quintessential backroom dealer–a lawmaker who in an earlier era would have had a snappy, all-too-friendly nickname among the smoky back room crowd. His political moves have clearly made Big Business happy, and they have also positioned him to make a renewed case for his own promotion after a mid-term election loss. In short, his constant pecking at Pelosi is all about his being able to argue “I told you so” if Democrats lose–and then making a run against her for minority leader with the full backing of the Wall Street wing of the party. In all likelihood, this is the very scenario Hoyer privately dreams of, because if Democrats win the House, he’s going to have his hands full with Rep. Jack Murtha (D-Pa.) who has already announced his intention to run against Hoyer for Majority Leader.

Pelosi will certainly be on the ropes with a Hoyer challenge and a mid-term election loss. But will the progressive movement mobilize to preserve her status as leader? It’s a safe bet that Hoyer, who is a polarizing figure inside the Democratic caucus, will not be allowed to waltz to the top unchallenged. That leaves either a surprise run for leader from one of the senior progressives like Miller or Obey, or more likely, an attempt by professional self-promoter Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.). Either way, an unpredictable situation will ensue–one where the ideological poles of the party will each use leadership candidates as vehicles to express their aspirations.

It goes without saying that a Democratic victory in 2006 would be much better for progressives and the country as a whole. The fights and problems that will come with a win are the enviable troubles of political riches, rather than political poverty. But progressives must not be tricked by the usual Democratic Party propaganda that promises a utopia after the election. No matter what the outcome on November 7, a new fight begins on November 8.