Rethinking the Future

Fossil fuels can't last forever. A new book plans for a world without them.

By Mike Lynn

The human mind almost seems hard-wired to expect the future to resemble the past. While this may be an artifact of our evolutionary history that served our ancestors well, in the complex and rapidly changing world we have created, it could prove a fatal blind [RETURN TO ARTICLE]

  • Reader Comments

    Biofuel is indeed dangerous and can’t be considered as an alternative to oil which shows how difficult it is to replace fossil fuels. Unfortunately governments around the world show a false enthusiasm for this kind of fuel. The example of palm oil shows how dangerous that enthusiasm is:

    Palm Oil, a Dangerous Solution for Biofuels
    Its production increases global warming

    Palm oil has been regarded as the best solution for obtaining an ideal biofuel: a cheap, renewable alternative to fossil fuels that would be also a solution for global warming.

    Thus, energy companies converted generators and energy production from palm oil increased.

    But new researches are increasingly pointing that: “As a biofuel, it’s a failure.”

    That’s the conclusion of a four-year research led by Marcel Silvius, a climate expert at Wetlands International in the Netherlands, that compared the benefits of palm oil to the ecological disaster from wiping out virgin Asian rain forests to grow lucrative new plantations.

    This oil was for long a primary ingredient in food and cosmetics, but about five years ago, scientists started looking on it as a source of renewable energy, spurred by subsidies in many European Union countries and imports increased by 65 % since 2002.

    Palm oil is attractive as it is relatively abundant, cheap
    (roughly $550 per ton), and needs few or no changes to already existing power stations.

    Unlike fossil fuels, it was considered that the carbon emitted from palm oil’s burning is equal to that absorbed during its growth.

    But the cultivation of the palm trees was found to unleash far more carbon dioxide than will be saved by oil’s burning.

    The report investigated the carbon released from peat swamps in Indonesia and Malaysia that had been drained and burnt to make place for the palm oil trees.

    Roughly 85 % of the world’s palm oil is produced by the two countries, and about 25 % of Indonesia’s plantations are on drained peat bogs.

    600 million tons of carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere yearly from the drained swamps and another 1.4 billion tons is expelled while firing the rain forests to clear the ground for plantations.

    The resulting smoke often shrouds Singapore (hotels) and Malaysia in a dense fog for weeks at a time.

    The CO2 expelled in the air for planting palm trees can represent up to 8 % of the world’s fossil fuel emissions.

    Experts said the research is astonishing, credible and reveals that harvesting palm oil for fuel is counterproductive.

    “Deforestation is the No. 2 cause of greenhouse gas emissions after the burning of fossil fuels,” said Jeffrey Dukes, a biologist at the University of Massachusetts.

    more
    http://news.softpedia.com/news/Palm-Oil-A-Dangerous-Solution-for-Biofuels-50885.shtml

    Posted by Jimmy Jimbo on May 28, 2009 at 12:37 AM

    “But history, Holmgren writes, shows that nations experiencing rapid decreases in complexity generally become deeply unstable and experience food insecurity, mass migration and a breakdown of law and order.”

    Japan somehow finds a way to ensure stability and harmony to a great extent throughout its islands, even with food self-sufficiency at around 40%, and the importation of fossil fuels at close to 100% for its needs.

    When push comes to shove over the peak of oil production, they will find a way to greatly increase other available energy sources. There is considerable angst in the country over expanded use of nuclear power, but they will find a way to offset any energy shortages down the road resulting from oil’s decline.

    The Japanese expect to have a somewhat authoritarian government, and will continue to do so, even 6 decades after we wrote their post-war constitution and installed democracy.

    The Japanese take what they want from the rest of the world, filter out what is undesirable, and put the rest to their advantage. 

    Maybe there is something to be said for a nation that has a 98+% homogeneous population, instead of a “melting pot.”

    If necessary a few decades from now, the Japanese will find a way to lead “more locally focused lives.” They did it before, they can do it again.

    I have faith many countries in this world can change.

    But can the United States of America? We shall see.

    Posted by patrick hattman on May 28, 2009 at 5:13 PM

    He surveys current energy and climate science and uses quantitative methods to outline possible scenarios of the future.
    farmville cheats

    Posted by Alfred Mansour on Aug 7, 2010 at 10:55 PM

    The CO2 expelled in the air for planting palm trees can represent up to 8 % of the world’s fossil fuel emissions. Experts said the research is astonishing, credible and reveals that harvesting palm oil for fuel is counterproductive.
    natural tinnitus cures | warts home remedies

    Posted by Adam Baker on Aug 10, 2010 at 6:11 AM

    A lot of chefs forget fish whenever they take out their own charcoal barbecue grill, favoring the actual classic beef and pork. Unfortunately outdoor grills fish releases fillets which might extremely kamado grill flaky along with flavorful, a person wouldn’t think twice about barbecue grill not often known the very beer batter or maybe typically the profound baking.
    Grilled fish is actually healthful - virtually fat-free outdoor barbecue grill help save a little brushing of vegetable oil to prevent it from inserting—plus making that at real wood cedar planks can kamado grills certainly add full flavour free of improving unhealthy calories.
    Karen Adler along with Judith Fertig, the making duo by Kansas referred to as typically the kamado ceramic grill Queens, reported ample at home cooks, particularly landlocked Midwesterners, skip fish relating to grills together with are usually surprised to find out barbecue grills how very easy it is without question.
    With every, Adler plus Fertig bbq grills possess created much more when compared with 20 cookbooks, primarily on grilling in barbecue grill accessories addition to barbecuing, this includes the particular recently ceramic grills launched "Techniques with regard to Cooking charcoal bbq grill Fish" and also "Skills intended for Planking I consider the way to grilling fish is to cedar plank this," Adler kamado ceramic grill stated. Planking, or maybe making on a fabulous cedar planks of savoury solid wood which has been grill bundles soaked in water, helps to continue to keep fish succulent plus reduces the call to turn the actual fish filet over, extremely firmly sticking isn’t a concern. Fish with the latest planks chefs by means of portable grills roundabout temperature. You need to soak the exact cedar in cold water for not less than one hour before putting this about typically the grill so the plank doesn’t burn during cooking.
    Planking occurs in convenient pertaining to extremely thin fillets of water fish, this sort of since perch, which in turn can certainly sink while outdoor bbq grills. Whenever it’s done preparing food, the fish bbq smokers is good straight out of the cedar.Aluminum foil likewise helps out lining the particular bbq grill grates and also generating packets to get fish.

    Posted by aretha1979 on Sep 9, 2010 at 1:16 AM

    It is time we need to fundamentally change course in an era constrained by the effects of climate change and decreasing energy abundance finds no place in policy discussions. This is great for our living in the future. Agree? selling a used car

    Posted by Enrico Fermi on Sep 19, 2010 at 11:13 PM

    cocokathy90 This amazing coach handbags for those busy days or nights of perfect.  discount coach handbags , leaders and affordable for the American luxury brand known to create attractive designer coach handbags outlet stores and accessories. cheap coach handbags fashion handbags and signature characteristics and use of quality fabrics materials.Shop these coaches and the latest design wallet Coach Wallets Coach Patchwork Handbags here. Coach purses are new arrivals direct from the factory area . .Check more classical style Poppy Coach bags our online store, buy more and more concessions.gdf

    Posted by yangcoco on Sep 27, 2010 at 6:58 PM

    Thank you for sharing with us,I too always learn something new from your post! Great article. I wish I could write so well.
    super

    Posted by anna2010 on Oct 27, 2010 at 3:24 AM

    <a >UGG</a> are the most common <a >UGG Boots</a> when it comes to women’s preference. They’re worn with dresses, shorts, pants, skirts, and everything in between whether it’s sunny outside, rainy, overcast, or dark outside. <a >Cheap UGG Boots</a> They’re a popular boot that comes in a variety of sizes, but that doesn’t mean that <a >UGG Boots Sale</a> stopped there, they have designed popular sandals, slippers, outdoor, and casual shoes for women. <a >Discount UGG Boots</a>
    <a >Classic UGGS</a>
    <a >Classic UGGS Boots</a>
    <a >UGG Sale</a>
    <a >UGG Outlet</a>
    <a >UGG Clearance</a>
    <a >UGG Boots Clearance </a>
    <a >UGG Boots On Sale</a>
    <a >UGG Boots Outlet</a>
    <a >UGG Boots Outlet</a>
    <a >UGG Boots Wholesale</a>
    <a >UGG Boots For Cheap</a>
    <a >UGG Boots For Sale</a>
    <a >UGG Boots USA</a>
    In 2003, <a >UGGS</a> was named the “Brand of the Year” by Footwear News, and from this point on sheepskin shoes were all the rage in Milan, Paris, <a >UGGS On Sale</a> and New York. The beaches of Australia spurred the trends of all the high fashion runways.
    The mission of <a >UGGS Discount</a> is to create and market the most comfortable and luxurious footwear. <a >UGGS For Cheap</a> They want to design a shoe that will fit into your daily lifestyle, while being fashionable and comfortable.
    <a >UGG Tall Boots</a> come in a variety of designs, and while using the finest materials, they are constructed of high quality leather, suede, and sheepskin. <a >UGGS For Sale</a>
    <a >Cheap UGGS</a>
    <a >UGGS Outlet</a>
    <a >UGG Boots</a>
    <a >Classic UGGS</a>
    <a >Classic UGGS Sale</a>
    <a >UGG Boots Sale</a>
    <a >Cheap UGG Boots</a>
    <a >Discount UGG Boots</a>
    <a >UGGS Outlet Stores</a>
    <a >UGGS Wholesale</a>
    <a >UGGS Online</a>
    <a >UGG Boots UK</a>
    But, with all this talk of luxury and high-end, <a >UGG Boots Sale</a> it doesn’t mean that you always have to pay that. <a >Cheap UGG Boots</a> You can find wholesale <a >Classic UGG Boots</a> that are brand new without any scratches or dents. You can find cheap <a >UGG Classic Boots</a> and sandals. You options and designs are wide and varied, whether you’re looking for women’s boots, men’s sandals, or kids shoes, <a >UGGS</a> will have your tastes and needs covered.
    <a >UGG For Sale</a>
    <a >UGG Boots Outlet</a>
    <a >UGG Norway</a>
    <a >Discount UGG</a>
    <a >Cheap UGG</a>
    <a >UGG For Cheap</a>
    <a >UGG Women’s Boots</a>
    <a >UGG Sheepskin Boots</a>
    <a >Buy UGG Boots</a>
    <a >Wholesale UGG Boots</a>

    Posted by seoerchen on Nov 9, 2010 at 5:51 AM

    <a >Classic UGGS</a>

    Posted by seoerchen on Nov 9, 2010 at 5:53 AM