With His Stunning Victory in Brazil, Lula Has Made History Again

The speech might also serve as an indication of how Lula intends to interpret his mandate. During his remarks, he promised to expand the federal government’s role in fighting organized crime, arguing that state governments had failed to provide adequate security. ​“For the worker, we will provide protection; for the criminal, prison,” he said, repeating a slogan from the run-off designed to blunt Flávio’s advantage among voters concerned with public safety. The promise marks a potentially significant shift in a country where public security has long been the responsibility of state governments and where the right has made law and order one of its most effective electoral appeals. Indeed, Flávio campaigned on a hard-line approach to crime modeled on Nayib Bukele’s in El Salvador. Many on the left have raised the point for years, but Lula recognizes now that the issue of public safety cannot be left to his opponents. 

The president also returned to an issue that has become increasingly central to his political agenda: the power of digital platforms. Lula argued that the election had required his campaign to overcome interference by U.S.-based tech companies — including Meta, which admitted internally to undue interference in Brazil’s political debate — and promised to pursue regulation, insisting that online crimes should be treated with the seriousness accorded to any other crime. 

His remarks reflected the role social media played in the runoff. Lula’s campaign intensified its lackluster online organizing, using digital tools to organize real-world mobilizations. For example, a WhatsApp group organized by Rede congressman André Janones attracted almost 11 million participants and helped amplify pro-Lula messaging. Rallies supporting Lula in cities like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro reached a scale rarely seen since the return of democracy in 1985.

Lula’s victory speech also contained an admission that the campaign had changed his thinking about how to govern. He promised greater public participation in government decisions and said digital communication would take on a larger role in his administration. He pledged to speak more directly to the public about what he thinks and what his government is doing, an acknowledgment that the presidency cannot rely on the machinery of government, traditional media, and the Workers Party’s (PT) established networks alone to sustain public support. 

The rocky road ahead

In 2022, Lula presented himself not as a progressive stalwart but as the face of a broad front assembled to stop the far- right. That coalition was always an uneasy one, held together less by agreement over the country’s future than by a shared conviction that another Bolsonaro presidency had to be prevented. Four years later, the same logic has carried Lula across the finish line. There is a certain irony in this outcome. Lula has won a fourth term by demonstrating that the far-right can still be defeated at the ballot box, yet the political conditions that made his victory necessary remain largely intact. The far-right retains a vast electorate and considerable institutional power. The PT, meanwhile, has secured another presidential victory without resolving the question of what comes after Lula.

Despite winning the elections, Lula will now need all the help he can get if he is to enact his agenda. Historically, Lula has always had to contend with a conservative Congress, but the new legislature will be the most reactionary in Brazil’s history. Even a broad grouping of left-wing parties falls far short of a majority in the 513-member Chamber of Deputies. The legislative elections have thus given the far-right the means to exert enormous pressure on the government even after its defeat in the presidential race. Bolsonaro’s far-right Partido Liberal has emerged as the largest party in both chambers, with 121 deputies and 28 senators.

Given this context, Lula’s fourth term could end up being, more than anything, a caretaker presidency. Across Latin America, left-wing governments have struggled to turn electoral victories into durable political realignments, while right-wing movements have capitalized on public insecurity, economic frustration, and disillusionment with established parties. Lula’s victory doesn’t necessarily reverse that pattern, but it marks a crucial interruption. Stemming the tide against ideological extremists at home, he can create space for progressives elsewhere in the region to reconsider their strategies and for Brazil’s left to prepare a future beyond Lula. 

At the same time, Flávio’s campaign offered the Bolsonaro movement a route back to the presidency without requiring Jair himself to appear on the ballot. The senator had promised that one of his first measures would be to secure his father’s release from prison. That route has now been closed, at least for the next four years.

There will likely be few landmark policy gains for Lula in his last presidential term. From a progressive point of view, however, it can be a fruitful time to rebuild political organization, develop new leaders, and address the concerns that have made conservative appeals to public security, religion and economic insecurity so effective. Lula has earned the right to leave the political stage on his own terms, but his work is not yet done. As he begins charting the course of the next four years, however, it is worth taking a beat to note the significance of his achievement: he has won, and denied the far-right the presidency once more. That is no small gift — to Brazilians and to the world.

A version of this story also appeared at NACLA.