Hispanic Voters Are Dissatisfied. What Will It Mean for the Midterms?

This disillusionment will very likely have consequences at the ballot box. If the congressional election were held today, nearly half of Hispanic likely voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate, compared with 26% who say they will vote for the Republican candidate. Another 20% say they don’t know. Even Hispanic Protestants, who lean Republican, are divided.

Dissatisfaction with the current administration and low enthusiasm are only part of the story. Hispanic Americans are also entering the midterms with low confidence in elections themselves. Less than half say they have confidence in elections, while a majority say denying eligible voters the right to vote is a bigger problem than ineligible voting (53% vs. 39%). Two-thirds say racial discrimination remains a serious problem in U.S. elections.

These concerns take on greater significance with Trump’s continued attacks on the integrity of elections and efforts to change election rules. The SAVE America Act, or Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, would require additional proof of citizenship to register to vote. At the same time, the Trump administration has expanded the use of the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements, or SAVE, database to verify voter citizenship, an effort the Supreme Court recently allowed to proceed.

Research shows that strict ID policies disproportionately affect Latino citizens. For Hispanic Americans who already show serious concerns about racial discrimination and eligible voters being denied the right to vote, additional barriers could make voting more difficult and further erode confidence in the electoral process.

Still, growing discontent may not translate into enthusiasm to vote. Just one-third of Hispanic likely voters say they are very excited to vote despite Hispanic Americans representing a vital share of the electorate in several states, including some of the most talked-about states this election cycle, such as Texas.

Hispanic voters in Texas have moved away from the Democratic Party in recent elections, but the Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton may represent a chance for some to move back toward the party. Talarico is running as a Democrat on a platform of economic populist policies and offering an interpretation of Christianity that could appeal to some religious voters on the right, while Paxton, the Republican, has emphasized his continued support for Trump’s ​“America First” agenda. Recent polls show the race is essentially a toss-up, but among Hispanic Americans in particular, Talarico holds an advantage of 54% to 41%.

Other high-profile races in Texas featuring Hispanic candidates may also offer Democrats an opportunity to bring Hispanic voters back to the party. These include the gubernatorial race, where Democratic Gina Hinojosa is challenging incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott, as well as Texas’s 15^th Congressional District, which Republicans flipped in 2022. Well-known Tejano singer Bobby Pulido is challenging Republican Monica De La Cruz. 

Hispanic Americans remain politically diverse, but they are entering the midterms profoundly dissatisfied with the state of the country. Whether that dissatisfaction translates to the ballot box remains to be seen. With Trump encouraging voters to ​“pretend like [he] is on the ballot,” the question heading into the midterms is not whether he has lost support among Hispanic Americans. It is what dissatisfied Hispanic voters will do with that dissatisfaction — and whether they believe their vote can make a difference.

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