The Specter of a Second Nakba

The international community praised Israel’s anti-government protests as pro-democracy, but these demonstrations focused primarily on preserving the rights and privileges of Israeli Jews fed up with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The protests failed to address the root cause of violence in Israeli society and toward Palestinians: Israel’s settler-colonialism, denial of Palestinian humanity and existence, and the state’s inherent favoritism and system of apartheid of one ethnic and religious group over another.

While the international community and mainstream media focused primarily on Israel’s anti-government protests earlier this spring, the existential threat of a second Nakba facing Palestinians remains largely unnoticed.

Escalation Amidst Threats of a Second Nakba

In 2021, as Netanyahu faced another political crisis, his government intensified the aggression against Palestinians by attacking worshippers at the Al-Aqsa mosque during the month of Ramadan. This assault ultimately led to a violent Israeli attack on Gaza, which resulted in the deaths of some 211 Palestinians, injured thousands more, and caused widespread destruction and loss.

Today, the dark irony for Palestinians is that, even as Netanyahu faces one of the most severe internal crises in Israel’s history — accompanied by criticism from Western allies and Jewish diaspora communities — the solution to escape the crisis was again for his government to send forces to assault worshippers at the Al-Aqsa mosque. He hoped to trigger an escalation with Gaza, mirroring the events in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of Jerusalem in April and May 2021. It was then that Israeli settlers, supported by the state, attempted to expel Palestinians from their homes in Sheikh Jarrah. This action sparked a large-scale uprising dubbed the ​“Unity Intifada.” Palestinians witnessed, on live television and social media, scenes of Israeli settlers trying to force families from their homes — scenes reminiscent of the Nakba, or ​“Catastrophe,” that occurred in 1948 as a result of the establishment of the state of Israel and the subsequent displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from their homes.

In 2023, just two years later, it is clear that the Israeli government believed isolating Palestinians is more feasible than ever and has enacted all sorts of violence to do so. Bolstered by new regional allies and a fragmented, preoccupied international order, the Zionist Right views these conditions as favorable for finishing what the Zionist ​“Left” initiated: completing the Nakba and ending the question of Palestine once and for all, and fully conquering and annexing occupied Arab and Palestinians lands.

For Palestinians, these threats are all too real, and most perceive the rise of Israel’s right-wing government as a confirmation of their fears about the future. The events that unfolded during Ramadan and now, the strikes by Israel on Gaza, have reinforced Palestinian concerns that Israel has been pushing the limits of its aggression, gauging the extent of Palestinian resilience, and assessing the potential reactions of regional and international actors to Israel’s escalating attacks on the Palestinian people. 

We must interpret Israel’s brutal attacks on Palestinian worshipers during Ramadan — this year and in 2021 — as more than just violence against individuals and abuse of power. The attacks represent an assault on the collective dignity and existence of Palestinians and an expansion of the boundaries of aggression against them.

Sacred Spaces and Shattered Dignity

Many Palestinian worshippers, like millions of Muslims worldwide, partake in Itikaf during Ramadan, a form of spiritual seclusion. Itikaf offers a unique experience, enabling individuals to spend extended periods in mosques, praying and reciting passages from the Quran, with the aim of detaching from worldly worries and concerns.

Jerusalem is home to the Al-Aqsa mosque, Islam’s third holiest shrine after the Holy Sanctuary in Mecca and the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina. It is a sacred site for Palestinian worshippers, especially during Ramadan, and is a special place for Itikaf.

Even during the holiest month of the year and special moments like Itikaf, Palestinians are starkly reminded that their dignity and humanity can be violated at any moment. The scenes witnessed by millions worldwide on social media and news channels, showing Israeli police storming the Al-Aqsa mosque, assaulting worshippers, and beating them with batons and rifle butts, were horrifying. In that moment, not only was the peaceful seclusion sought by worshippers violated, but so was the collective dignity of an entire people.

Assaults on Palestinian worshippers at Al-Aqsa have always sparked a Palestinian response in the form of mass mobilization, unarmed protests or armed actions. To most Palestinians, an assault on the Al-Aqsa mosque is an assault on Palestinian collective dignity and existence. The collective logic — and what Palestinians have seen play out — is that the normalization of Israel’s violation of Al-Aqsa will automatically lead to the violation of every aspect of Palestinian existence.

Persistence in the Face of Aggression

The current Israeli government and its coalition partners, especially the religious Zionist right, have focused on two related objectives: The first is isolating and cornering Palestinians and threatening to carry out a second Nakba with the aim of fully annexing the West Bank and imposing an eternal isolation of the Gaza Strip. The second is the consolidation of power for the right-wing elements within the Israeli state, to create the conditions necessary for the first.

For these reasons, Palestinians tend to understand the Nakba not as a past event, but as an ongoing process of erasure that persists to this day, which might still be halted. Moreover, they acknowledge the possibility of it occurring again.

For months, the Israeli government and its settler allies have exerted immense pressure on Palestinians, isolating, attacking and besieging them. Cognizant of the imminent existential crisis, Palestinians inside and outside of Palestine have been mobilizing to defend their very existence.

Over the past several decades, and particularly in recent years, numerous instances of Palestinian mass mobilization and resistance have emerged, including the Great March of Return and the Unity Intifada. Despite the challenges posed by political and geographic fragmentation, these moments of defiance persist, underscoring that the Palestinian national cause remains alive.

In this context, for many Palestinians, Arabs, Muslims and people of conscience around the world, Al-Aqsa mosque represents more than just a 1,400-year-old historic site, national landmark, and place of religious and spiritual significance. It is also a symbol of the Palestinian struggle against Israel’s policies of fragmentation, partition and control over Palestinian agency. By attempting to control Al-Aqsa and impose a spatial and temporal partition between Muslims and Jews, Israel seeks to regulate worshippers’ and visitors’ access based on factors such as age and location within Palestine. Israel also asserts its right — enacted by overwhelming force — to enter the mosque, violate its sanctity and dictate when Palestinians can pray or congregate. 

If Israel can act with impunity at a holy sanctuary like Al-Aqsa, then it can ostensibly get away with worse actions almost anywhere else.

To understand the events during Ramadan, it’s important to look at the concept of ​”al-Idhlāl al-jamʻī,” or collective humiliation, which Palestinians use to describe Israel’s attacks on worshippers. This concept is particularly relevant in the context of the attack on Al-Aqsa and the events that followed. For many Palestinians, Al-Aqsa embodies the struggle against Israeli policies aimed at seizing Palestinian land, national and historical symbols, and controlling every aspect of their lives. Therefore, an assault on Al-Aqsa is seen as a collective attack on Palestinians.

In response to the attacks on Palestinian worshippers at Al-Aqsa, Palestinian factions in Gaza fired rockets into Israeli settlements situated in the Gaza sub-district region, also called the ​“Gaza envelope” region, currently under Israel’s control. While a response from Gaza was expected, a surprising development occurred when anonymous groups from Lebanon also launched rockets into Israel. Many anticipated that Gaza’s rockets would provoke a violent Israeli reaction similar to the response in 2021, after Sheikh Jarrah. However, Lebanon’s involvement appeared to catch Netanyahu’s government off guard. Israel — which was not prepared for a regional war, especially after criticism from Western allies — cautiously retaliated against Lebanese targets and conducted limited retaliatory strikes in Gaza. 

It is too soon to tell if the Lebanese front’s involvement in recent events is an isolated occurrence or indicative of significant shifts unfolding in the region. However, Lebanon’s response to the attacks on Palestinian worshipers during Ramadan has raised questions about Israel’s deterrence ability, especially when facing multiple fronts like Gaza and Lebanon. To avoid two simultaneous escalations, Israel chose limited retaliation on both fronts. However, weeks later, Israel has now launched another attack on Gaza and assassinated leaders of Islamic Jihad, along with some of their family members. This led to further escalation and aggression in Gaza, which, despite causing significant losses, still revealed a decline in Israel’s deterrence capacity.

Unforeseen Alliances and Shifting Dynamics

The Middle East has experienced a series of intriguing changes recently, including the Chinese-mediated reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran — a development that could potentially strengthen the position of Palestinian armed groups like Hamas. (The recent visit of Hamas leaders to Saudi Arabia signals the end of a long-standing animosity between the two parties.) As Iran and Saudi Arabia work toward resolving their differences, Palestinian factions may gain increased ability to garner regional support and enhance their capacity to confront Israel both within and outside Palestine. The re-entry of Lebanon into the equation could reflect a growing regional coalition prepared to challenge Israel.

It is also difficult to evaluate whether these developments will stem the tide of Arab normalization with Israel, such as the Abraham Accords and other instances of rapprochement between Arab regimes and Israel. The Israeli government may have misinterpreted the implications of its newly formed alliances with Arab regimes, assuming that these relationships granted it the right to further violate Palestinian rights and intensify its assault on the Palestinian cause. Israel’s leaders seem to have overlooked that, even if regimes normalize relations with the state of Israel, Palestine (and especially Jerusalem) remain vital symbols of dignity, national identity and cultural existence for the Arab public. Furthermore, Israel’s relationship with its Western allies, such as the United States, has become more questionable than ever.

Netanyahu’s drive to remain in power and evade accountability can lead him to test new boundaries, including empowering figures like the Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich, who are edging the region closer to an all-out conflict. 

Although the region narrowly avoided a full-scale eruption this Ramadan, numerous Palestinian analysts warned of a potential Israeli assault on Gaza in the near future, arguing that Israel is unlikely to passively accept the weakening of its deterrence capacity. The Israeli government’s decision to forgo a large-scale campaign against Gaza and Lebanon during Ramadan may have been a tactical move to prevent the two fronts from becoming connected, possibly leaving room for future aggression against Gaza alone The ongoing aggression against the Gaza Strip supports these predictions.

Regardless of what the future holds — be it further escalation or temporary de-escalation — the pressing question remains: What is the fate of Palestinians in the face of a cynical settler-colonial state that refuses to recognize their humanity and aims to erase their existence? If there is one lesson the past century has taught, it is that Palestinians have endured much, but cannot be erased.