Trump’s Plan to Deport Millions of Immigrants Would Be a Nightmare for Workers and the Economy
Mass deportations could spike inflation, lower the GDP and lead to massive job losses for U.S.-born workers.
David Dyssegaard Kallick and Daniel Costa
Former President Donald Trump is promising to deport millions of immigrants if he wins back the White House, and estimates put the cost of implementing such a move in the hundreds of billions. Trump’s mass deportation plan would also tear apart communities, put people into camps and break up families.
But what about the cost to all of our economic futures?
While the U.S. immigration system is far from optimal and urgently needs reforms, here are two facts that are not controversial among economists: 1) Immigration expands the U.S. economy. And 2) the economy grows without hurting the wages of U.S.-born workers.
Doubt it? Look what has happened in just the past few years. Immigration has increased since the Covid pandemic hit the U.S. in 2020 while unemployment rates have been near historic lows. That increase in immigration led the Congressional Budget Office to predict an increase of $8.9 trillion in GDP and a decrease of $900 billion in the deficit over the next 10 years as immigration contributes not only to economic growth but also to tax revenues.
There are significant challenges in the U.S. economy, to be sure. We have seen decades of economic polarization and stagnating wages for most workers. But some politicians like Trump have tried to blame immigrants for our economic policy failures. We shouldn’t fall for it.
Immigrants are a vital part of our economy, making up nearly 19% of the labor force in this country, and 21% of business owners. The jobs immigrants hold are vital to our economic future, especially as the population ages. Without them, our economy would suffer and tens of thousands of U.S.-born workers would lose their jobs. And, as The Guardian reports, “the loss of migrant workers would trigger productivity losses and a new round of inflationary pricing pressure.”
The majority of immigrants — like the majority of U.S.-born workers — are in middle-wage jobs (earning $35,000 to $104,00) or in upper wage jobs earning more than that. Immigrants are about as likely as U.S.-born workers to be truck drivers, registered nurses and retail supervisors. It’s also true that certain sectors of our economy rely more heavily on immigrants. For example, immigrants are more likely than U.S.-born workers to be janitors, construction laborers and maids.
The economic inclusion of immigrants — who typically come to the United States in prime working age — helps balance the number of people who are retiring, which stabilizes programs like Social Security. And retirement with dignity will require at least as many home health aides, nurses, and doctors (many of whom are immigrants) as we have today, and likely many more. These are all areas where immigrants play a significant role.
The way to improve wages for all workers is to invest in our infrastructure, manufacturing, and care economy, and to set strong labor standards and have immigration policies that ensure working people have full rights on the job and can exercise them without fear of retaliation. We need to invest in policies that will support wage gains, not look for scapegoats to blame when we don’t focus on the real problem.
We have seen some positive developments over the past few years — thanks to smart economic policies and investments — and during a period when immigration, coincidentally, was high. Between 2019 and 2023, many workers have experienced some of the biggest gains they’ve had in decades. The lowest-wage workers saw a 13% gain in hourly wages after adjustment for inflation — that’s a 34% increase without inflation adjustment — over that same period. That’s a fact that should be making headlines week after week. Wage growth has been particularly strong for Black men, young workers and working mothers.
It is, in other words, very possible to improve wages and working conditions in the United States without shooting our economy in the foot by turning against immigrants.
Many immigrants come to the United States to pursue opportunities and freedom. They also expand America’s culture: Bringing food, music, customs and ideas from different parts of the world, they add strands to the rich and diverse fabric of this country.
But the economic story is an important one. And, while politicians might try to blur the picture, for economists it is crystal clear: immigration expands the American economy.
Disclosure: Views expressed are those of the writer. As a 501©3 nonprofit, In These Times does not support or oppose any candidate for public office.
David Dyssegaard Kallick is director of Immigration Research Initiative.
Daniel Costa is the director of immigration with EPI Action.
