Wisconsin’s Red Wave Crashers

This crisis was writ large across Wisconsin, where what was frequently described as ​“the worst gerrymandering America” created ​“an anti-democratic reality” such that ​“elections for the state legislature don’t matter,” according to the Guardian.“ What we saw in Wisconsin that cycle is every candidate at the state-wide level who ran as a Democrat get close to 50% of the vote, some a little over, some a little under,” Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer, a Democrat from Racine, said of the 2022 numbers. ​“And yet, those same results yielded 35% of seats for Democrats in the Assembly.” That observation from the minority leader could have been made in 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018 or 2020. But after more than a decade of organizing and court battles, the gerrymander was finally up-ended. New maps were drawn and everything changed, with dramatically different results and major lessons for the rest of the country.

In the 2024 election, President-elect Donald Trump won Wisconsin by the narrowest of margins: 49.7% to Kamala Harris’ 48.9%. In the race for U.S. Senate, Democrat Tammy Baldwin won reelection by an equally narrow margin: 49.4% to Republican banker Eric Hovde’s 48.5%. Yet, state legislative con-tests produced significantly stronger results for Democrats, who picked up 10 seats in the state Assembly and four in the Senate. The Republican advantages collapsed to 18-15 in the Senate and 54-45 in the Assembly. That means Senate Republicans lost their previous super-major ity and, with it, their ability to override vetoes by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. And Republican legislators — who had long dismissed calls by Evers for special sessions by gaveling into their chambers and then out minutes later, avoiding issues from gun violence to workforce shortages to childcare and hospital closures — suddenly find them-selves in a position where they will have to work with theirDemocratic colleagues.

“We are here to say that the era of gavel-in, gavel-out politics without accountability is over,” said newly elected state Sen. Jodi Habush Sinykin, a Democrat who defeated a Republican incumbent for a high-stakes Milwaukee-area seat.

Democrats in Wisconsin still have their work cut out for them. Republicans still have the upper hand in the legislature. But the GOP’s grip has been weakened to such an extent that there is now talk of building coalitions that can finally advance Evers’ agenda.

Democratic Party of Wisconsin chair Ben Wikler, who in the aftermath of the 2024 election has been floated as a potential contender for chair of the Democratic National Committee, holds up Wisconsin as an example of a state where a long-term focus on obtaining fair maps — as frustrating as the process may be — was absolutely worth the effort. ​“Democrats [are now] on track for a majority in 2026,” Wikler said.

In the Assembly, Neubauer announced, ​“There’s no question that having closer numbers will mean that Republicans need to work with Democrats in a way that they have not before,” predicting ​“real wins for our constituents.” Everything became possible because of a 2023 state Supreme Court election that proved to be the death knell for gerrymandering.

For years, a 4-3 majority on the court maintained Scott Walker’s gerrymander. But in 2023, a Supreme Court seat opened that had been held by a conservative. Progressive candidate and Milwaukee County Circuit Court judge Janet Protasiewicz argued, at a candidate forum that January, that ​“the maps are rigged. Absolutely, positively rigged. They do not reflect the people in the state.”

In April 2023, Protasiewicz won a landslide victory, flipping control of the Supreme Court and creating a ​“fair maps” majority. When it became clear the court would force redrawing, Republican legislators finally buckled. They accepted more balanced maps drawn by Evers, which set in motion the most competitive Wisconsin legislative elections in decades.

The gerrymander was broken — and Democrats went to work. Neubauer and energetic progressive legislators, such as state Rep. Francesca Hong, traveled the state and met with county parties and local activists. With help from Wikler and Wisconsin unions that were hard hit by the anti-labor legislation enacted by Walker and his allies in the 2010s, Neubauer, Hong and their allies recruited candidates in all but two of the state’s Assembly races. In every state Senate district, there was a Democrat on the ballot.

The party then poured resources and energy into districts that had not seen such active campaigning in years. Like Neubauer, Hong drove to remote corners of the state, weekend after weekend, to campaign with newly recruited contenders.

There were disappointments, to be sure, but Hong argues that even where Democratic legislative candidates fell short, Wisconsin Democrats laid a base for the wins that could yield majorities in 2026. And the seats won in the November election give Democrats enough power to continue transforming the state’s political agenda. 

They can now talk about governing on behalf of public schools, labor rights and environmental protection in urban and rural districts across the state.

As Neubauer says, ​“We have fundamentally shifted the status quo in the Wisconsin Legislature.”